Daniel Conley

Recent reports have demonstrated that hypoxia is widespread in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea. Here we evaluate the long-term trends of dissolved oxygen in bottom waters and of the drivers of coastal hypoxia. Eleven of the 33 sites evaluated had increasing trends of bottom water dissolved oxygen, but only the Stockholm Archipelago presents a consistent positive increasing trend in time. The vast majority of sites continue to worsen, especially along the Danish and Finnish coasts, in spite of remediation efforts to reduce nutrients. Surface temperatures were relatively comparable across the entire coastal Baltic Sea, whereas bottom water temperatures varied more strongly among sites, most likely due to differences in mixing (or stratification) and water exchange with the open Baltic Sea. Nutrient concentrations varied by factors 2-3 with highest levels at sites with restricted water exchange and higher land based nutrient loading. None of the sites were permanently stratified during the summer seasonal window although most of the sites were stratified more than half of the time. The frequency of hypoxia was also quite variable with sites in Gulf of Bothnia almost never experiencing hypoxia to enclosed sites with more than 50% chance of hypoxia. There are many factors governing hypoxia and the complexity of interacting processes in the coastal zone makes it difficult to identify specific causes. Our results demonstrate that managing nutrients can create positive feedbacks for oxygen recovery to occur. In the absence of nutrient reductions, the recovery from hypoxia in coastal marine ecosystems is unlikely. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.